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Anthropic’s Mega-IPO: The Case Behind the $2 Trillion Valuation

Yuri Khodjamirian, CFA
By Yuri Khodjamirian, CFA
CIO
October 9, 2026
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Earlier this month, we wrote about how investors can gain pre-IPO exposure to Anthropic. This article explores why the AI pioneer is attracting mega-IPO attention, what the latest market signals tell us, and why we own it in LAZR.

Key Takeaways

  • Anthropic is moving closer to one of the most anticipated IPOs of all time. Prediction markets currently favor an announcement before Dec 1, while trading on Hyperliquid—a popular crypto derivatives exchange—implies a valuation of $2.09 trillion.1

  • Anthropic’s enterprise focus and an experienced leadership team strengthen the investment case for the company to cement its market-leading position.

  • Reuters’ reporting on Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing reinforces a picture of exceptional revenue growth and extraordinary ambition, helping explain investor enthusiasm.

Large language models may look similar through a chat window, but they differ greatly in coding, reasoning, speed, and cost. Those differences become commercially important when businesses use AI across thousands of tasks. We believe Anthropic stands out for combining frontier research with a clear understanding of what businesses need, turning technical advances into tools that can become essential to how companies operate.

 

What Anthropic Does—And Why Enterprise Matters  

Anthropic develops Claude, a family of AI models that can write software, analyze documents, and carry out complex work. Customers pay for subscriptions or embed its models in their own products.

While Anthropic’s rival OpenAI introduced much of the world to AI models through ChatGPT, Anthropic has placed greater emphasis on businesses and developers. That focus matters because a business can measure AI’s value against employee time, operating costs, and faster product development. The opportunity extends beyond software budgets into spending on knowledge work. As Claude becomes integrated into a company’s systems, it can earn a larger and more durable place in its budget.

Anthropic’s enterprise momentum starts with winning new customers. Ramp’s Sep 2026 data shows that 61% of businesses making their first purchase in its foundational AI model category chose Anthropic.2 Its strength in software development helps explain that appeal. Menlo Ventures estimated that Anthropic held 54% of the enterprise AI coding market in late 2025, more than twice OpenAI’s 21%.3 Businesses run on software, but engineering talent is expensive, giving AI a clear opportunity to deliver measurable value by helping developers build more in less time. We see that position as a strong foundation for Claude to become embedded in other business functions. 

That enterprise demand has helped drive a remarkable acceleration in revenue. As we recently highlighted, estimates of Anthropic’s annualized recurring revenue (ARR) rose from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than $65 billion by the end of Jul 2026. That growth has put a potential IPO in focus.1,2 

 

When Could Anthropic Announce Its IPO?

Trading on Kalshi puts the probability of an official IPO announcement before Dec 1 at 67%, rising to 75% before Jan 1, and 88% before Feb 1.4 Those odds are consistent with Reuters’ reporting that the stock market debut is likely to follow November’s U.S. midterm elections.5 

Kalshi Suggests an IPO Announcement by December 
 Probability of an official Anthropic IPO announcement before each deadline 

Kalshi suggest IPOSource: Kalshi, October 5, 2026. Cumulative probabilities of an announcement, not the first trading day.4 

 

A Leadership Team with Public Market Experience

Anthropic was founded by former OpenAI researchers and engineers. It has since strengthened its leadership team with executives who know how to prepare and run a public company. CFO Krishna Rao, hired in May 2024, worked in private equity at Blackstone before helping execute Airbnb’s IPO. Former Meta investor-relations head Kenneth Dorell joined in Jun 2026, while Chris Liddell, previously CFO of Microsoft and General Motors, joined the board in Feb 2026. Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan followed in Apr 2026, bringing drug-development expertise as Anthropic pursues opportunities in healthcare.6,7,8,9

We see these additions as evidence of a company building the financial discipline, governance, and investor communication needed for its next stage.

 

What Reuters Reported from S-1 Leaks 

Credible media reports have already documented Anthropic’s rapidly expanding revenues. Reuters’ review of its confidential S-1, the registration statement submitted ahead of an IPO, details Anthropic’s investment in expanding AI capacity to support that growth. The filing disclosed $518 billion in infrastructure commitments for the years ahead, approximately 80% of which are non-cancellable, underscoring the scale of Anthropic’s investment in future AI capacity.10

We see a strategic purpose behind that spending. Securing compute capacity helps Anthropic serve rising customer demand as businesses expand their use of Claude, while also supporting the training of more capable models. Combined with its research expertise and growing role inside customer workflows, that infrastructure could strengthen Anthropic’s long-term competitive moat. Spending alone does not create an advantage, but converting that investment into better products and reliable service at scale can make the business harder to replicate.

 

What Supports Anthropic's Valuation 

Hyperliquid’s io:ANTH contract implied a valuation of approximately $2.09 trillion on Oct 5, compared with Anthropic’s $965 billion May funding valuation. The contract lets traders express a view on Anthropic’s value ahead of a listing, providing a market-based indication of expectations.10

Reuters reported company projections of $190 billion to $200 billion in annual revenue by 2028. At the observed Hyperliquid valuation, that implies roughly 10.5 to 11 times projected sales. We believe that valuation is very reasonable if growth continues and Anthropic turns its enterprise leadership into a durable, profitable business. Its opportunity extends across software development and other knowledge work, offering substantial runway to grow within existing customers. Sustaining that growth while improving profitability is what will make the valuation case.11

Hyperliquid Implies a Doubling of Anthropic's Market Cap 
 May funding valuation versus Hyperliquid contract-implied valuation ($ trillion)

Hyperliquid implies a doublingSource: Anthropic and Hyperliquid, Oct 5, 2026. Completed funding round versus contract-implied valuation.10 

 

Why We Own Anthropic in LAZR 

In our view, photonics is one of the most underappreciated bottlenecks in the AI buildout. As copper approaches its limits, light-based connections become essential to moving data between chips, servers, and data centers. Anthropic is helping drive that demand, with approximately $160 billion of its $518 billion in total infrastructure commitments tied to Broadcom-related equipment leases for Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), specialized chips designed for AI. These TPU systems rely heavily on optical connections to move data between chips, linking Anthropic’s expansion to demand for photonics.13

We own Anthropic in the Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR) because it gives the portfolio exposure to a leading AI business driving demand for the optical infrastructure we invest in. Our Anthropic position is marked at an implied company valuation of $1.39 trillion, more than 30% below the $2.09 trillion implied by Hyperliquid’s Oct 5 trading snapshot. Our LAZR FAQs explain how the position is valued. Together with our optical holdings, it gives investors substantial pre-IPO exposure to Anthropic (via an SPV) alongside the infrastructure helping power its growth.14
Endnotes
  1. Kalshi and Hyperliquid, market snapshots, Oct 5, 2026.
  2. Ramp, Sep 2026 procurement data, “Anthropic Ramp Rate.” The 61% figure measures first-time foundational-model buyers choosing Anthropic over the preceding 12 months. Buyers may purchase from multiple vendors.
  3. Menlo Ventures, Dec 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise.
  4. Kalshi, “When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?” Oct 5, 2026
  5. Reuters, Sep 28, 2026. “Anthropic’s IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision, surging costs.”
  6. Anthropic, May 21, 2024. “Krishna Rao joins Anthropic as Chief Financial Officer.”
  7. Business Insider, Jul 17, 2026.
  8. Anthropic, Feb 13, 2026. “Chris Liddell appointed to Anthropic’s board.”
  9. Anthropic, Vas Narasimhan board appointment, Apr 14, 2026.
  10. Anthropic, Hyperliquid, Entropy. Oct 2026.
  11. Reuters, Aug 14, 2026. “Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190–200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say.”
  12. Reuters, Aug 17, 2026. “Anthropic revenue run rate tops $65 billion, source says.”
  13. Anthropic, May 2026; Google Cloud, Nov 2025.
  14. Tema ETFs, Oct 9, 2026. A Special Purpose Vehicle's implied valuation is the estimated total value of a company based on the price a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) paid to acquire a fraction of its shares, usually on the secondary market. Because SPVs are often created to buy shares from existing shareholders (like early employees or founders) rather than directly from the company itself, this valuation reflects what investors are currently willing to pay, which may differ from the company's official valuation.