American Reshoring and the U.S. Election – the one thing both Trump and Harris can agree on

Key takeaways:

• Though there are nuances, both candidates support investing in U.S. manufacturing and reshoring, as evidenced by their actions in office.   
• Trump’s “America First” agenda leans more into tariffs with a view to level the playing field for U.S. companies and regain the U.S. manufacturing crown.
• While Vice President, Harris delivered the “Investing in America” program which included major bipartisan bills - a key accelerant to reshoring - and continued trade protectionism.
• One area of disagreement is clean energy, though even here the issue is bipartisan with the majority of investment going to red states.

Introduction

The U.S. election is a time when candidates attempt to differentiate themselves as much as possible to stand out to voters. Consensus is uncommon during the election cycle. There is, however, one topic that both candidates come together on – supporting U.S. manufacturing and reshoring.

Parsing the nuance of each candidate's policy stance reveals how closely aligned their intended outcomes actually are. Strengthening and investing in U.S. manufacturing is supported by both Republicans and Democrats, as evidenced by their actions in office.

Where do Trump and Harris stand on reshoring/reindustrialization

Source: Tema Analysis

Donald Trump

Former President Trump is well known for an “America First” agenda, most notably his tough stance on trade with the introduction of tariffs on steel/aluminum and section 301 tariffs on Chinese products. He went as far as renegotiating long-standing trade deals. This time he is doubling down on this protectionist stance¹:

Tax incentives are a key piece of Trump’s manufacturing agenda, as is pulling back on regulation with a view to fighting unfair competition globally. VP candidate J.D. Vance, currently a Senator representing Ohio, has spoken extensively about re-invigorating the economic activity within the "Rust Belt". From his speech at the National Republican Convention:

Kamala Harris

Though opposed on many issues, Harris, as proved during the Biden-Harris administration, has substantially the same stance on reshoring. None of the 301 tariffs established under Trump’s administration were revoked; and trade policy remained protectionist and focused on “Made in America”. In fact, analysis suggests that the U.S. turned protectionist more than 15 years ago² , pre-dating the current political tussle, highlighting the durability of this trend.  Trade policy did tilt more towards national security to protect and, even more importantly, strengthening key technology industries like semiconductors. This has culminated in the establishment of the “White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience” via executive order.

Biden-Harris have emphasized investing in America as an important pillar of their administration’s agenda. They even launched a website called “Investing in America” that tracks reshoring initiatives across the and private sector – which total $910bn worth of announced investments in manufacturing.

During the recent debate Kamala Harris touted her record as Vice President:

One point of dispute is a focus on clean tech such as electric vehicles, battery tech and renewable energy which stands in contrast to Trump’s position on supporting the U.S. fossil fuel industry. Even here the reality is not what it seems. Many of the renewable projects to date have been built in red states. A recent report found that 60% of announced projects representing 85% of investment in IRA-backed clean energy projects are in Republican congressional districts⁴.

Bipartisan bills

A major accelerant of reshoring were the three acts passed in 2022 – the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), The Chips and Science Act (CHIPS) and the Inflation reduction Act (IRA). These bills together provided $1.85Tn of funding for reshoring projects from infrastructure to semiconductor manufacturing. Though these bills were signed into law by the Biden-Harris administration they largely enjoyed bipartisan support. This is important because since 2000, many bills essentially have been single-party legislation passed without support from the other side. In fact the IIJA and Chips were the most bipartisan bills since 2012.

Conclusion

Despite the slight nuances around rhetoric and disagreement on green energy, both parties and their candidates, as well as both sides of the aisle, unequivocally and through their actions support investing and strengthening US manufacturing through reshoring.