How to Invest in Kalshi Pre-IPO | Tema ETFs

Key Takeaways

• Prediction market pioneer Kalshi’s estimated ARR reached $4 billion as of August 2026, amid a funding round valuing the company at roughly $40 billion.¹

• Bernstein forecasts annual prediction market trading volume could approach $10 trillion by 2035, over 20x its estimated 2026 level.²

• Investors can gain exposure to Kalshi through private transactions, closed-end funds, and ETFs.

• Tema’s TOLL and DICE ETFs hold Kalshi allocations of 12.65% and 4.09%, respectively, as of October 22, 2026.
  
  

Kalshi is drawing investor interest as prediction markets expand beyond sports and elections into financial markets, with emerging applications in economic forecasting and institutional risk management.^2,3 For those asking how to invest in Kalshi before a potential IPO, multiple routes offer exposure. The key differences are the size of the Kalshi allocation, fees, investor eligibility, and liquidity. 

Why Kalshi Stands Out  

Kalshi operates an exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where participants trade contracts linked to real-world outcomes.⁴ Its business earns fees from trading activity, making the growth of the platform central to the investment case. Bloomberg recently reported that its annualized revenue run rate reached approximately $4 billion in August 2026, reflecting the platform’s growing adoption and trading activity.¹

The wider market is expanding rapidly. Bernstein estimated that industry trading volume reached $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026, compared with just $50 billion in all of 2025. Its forecast approaches $10 trillion annually by 2035 as contracts tied to crypto, equities, and commodities gain share.²

Prediction Markets Could Approach $10 Trillion by 2035 
 Annual prediction market trading volume ($ billion)

Source: Bernstein, Sep 2026.   

Kalshi is proactively broadening its offering. In September, it introduced gold and silver perpetual futures—contracts without an expiration date.³ We believe this expansion gives the company more opportunities to compete in markets traditionally served by established investment platforms and exchanges.

Investor interest has followed. Reuters recently reported that Kalshi was in talks to raise approximately $1 billion at an implied valuation of $40 billion, up from $22 billion in its May 2026 funding round (though the new round had not yet closed at the time of writing).⁵

Is Kalshi Public?

Kalshi remains privately held. Reuters has reported early IPO discussions, but those reports do not establish a listing timeline.⁵ Buying an event contract on Kalshi also does not give the buyer ownership in the company.

Investors can instead access Kalshi shares through private transactions or gain exposure through a fund.

Three Ways to Invest in Kalshi Pre-IPO

Buying a fund like TOLL or DICE gives you a stake in its whole portfolio, including its Kalshi investment. Funds may access private companies through a special purpose vehicle (SPV), a separate legal entity set up to hold an investment. SPVs are an established way to hold private-company investments.

What Risks Should Investors Consider?

Regulatory uncertainty remains a risk for prediction markets as the category develops. Kalshi and the CFTC argue that sports event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight, while state regulators contend that betting laws apply.⁶

Conflicting court decisions have prompted calls for Supreme Court review. The timing and outcome remain uncertain, and adverse rulings could restrict access to some markets.⁷

Which ETFs Offer Kalshi Exposure?

For investors considering Kalshi before a potential IPO, the choice depends on the exposure they prefer.